Well, they appear to be if you are the junior partner. The Liberal Democrats nationally and Plaid Cymru in Wales – both junior partners in coalitions – have fared badly in yesterday’s elections, whilst their senior partners have done much better.
Of course, the situations in the Welsh elections and the various elections in which the Liberal Democrats have been hammered – none of which were actually for Westminster where they are in coalition – are very different from one another. And there are plenty of local government coalition governments where I’m sure this ‘rule’ didn’t hold, but it would be surprising if supporters of both the LibDems and Plaid were not asking themselves if coalition is such a good idea after all.
Some Tories may be having the same thought as they survey their weakened junior partners. They may also look north of the border and see that a minority government is both feasible – the Scottish National Party managed it for four years – and can lead on to electoral success.
It would be surprising if more Tory voices – there are already quite a few – don’t start asking whether they should engineer a divorce from the LibDems, and either rule alone or go for a snap general election. If, as seems likely, they are only two points behind Labour in the overall vote on May 5, this will be all the more tempting.
Colin Talbot is professor of public policy and management at the University of Manchester Business School. This post first appeared on Whitehall Watch
