The Tory–LibDem government will bring advantages, problems and a whole new way of working in Whitehall. So what can we expect from this political experiment?
Prepare for the unexpected was the watchword around Whitehall ahead of polling day. Based on the surprise outcomes in both Scotland and Wales in 2007, Sir Gus O’Donnell, the Cabinet secretary, challenged civil servants to think the unthinkable. And, now, the unthinkable has happened: the least predicted outcome, a formal Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition.
The implications are enormous for the way that Whitehall and Westminster operate. We have never been here before. Of course, there were the two wartime coalitions, the Tory-dominated Lloyd George coalition in 1918–22 and the national government of 1931–39. But none of these is really comparable with two separate, unified parties coming together in peacetime to create a formal coalition.
However, such coalitions are common outside Westminster. In the rest of Europe, all but four governments are multi-party and, nearer to home, there is long experience of coalitions in Scotland and Wales. And, of course, many local councils have been run by coalitions.
Among the many lessons of these examples – as set out in reports from the Constitution Unit and the Institute for Government – is that both politicians and civil servants have to behave differently. What had been informal now becomes formal. Coalitions usually involve not only lengthy negotiations – an average of 40 days in the European Union – but also long and detailed agreements on policy and the allocation of portfolios. This can result in inflexibility since everything has to be negotiated between the partners.
Moreover, reshuffles become tricky since ministers have to be replaced by someone from the same party. This is not necessarily a bad thing since it can increase the length of time ministers spend in the post.
The main attraction of coalitions is that they should provide a degree of stability, especially in the current situation where no single party has a Commons majority. The coalition government will have a majority of more than 70 in the Commons, slightly larger than the Labour government of 2005.
There is a danger that Parliament will be weakened with one rather than two opposition parties. This will put more pressure on strengthening its scrutiny role via the partially reformed select committee system.
In a coalition, unlike in a minority government, the emphasis shifts from the legislature to the executive. The key is good personal relations, particularly between party leaders. That was crucial in the creation of the first Lab/Lib coalition in Scotland in 1999 and of the Labour/Plaid Cymru coalition in Wales in 2007. David Cameron and Nick Clegg have created a personal bond. This was essential in the creation of the coalition and will be vital to its successful working and in ironing out inevitable disputes.
The Scottish experience suggests that ministers from the two parties should be spread in all departments and that no department should be regarded as the exclusive property of one party.
For the civil service, the challenge will be adjusting to working with two parties in government, requiring tact at balancing different parties and egos.
In some respects, a Con/Lib link was less likely than a Lab/Lib one given the history, especially during the Blair era, of attempts to build a progressive alliance on the centre-Left. But, despite the hopes of Lords Mandelson and Adonis, and belatedly of Gordon Brown, it proved impossible to create such an alliance. It was partly that the numbers in the new Commons were always against Labour.
But, as well as this, Cameron and the Conservative negotiators were more flexible and made a range of concessions to the LibDems on tax policy and political reform. Labour’s relative intransigence made the choice straightforward for the LibDems.
The main test for the coalition will be deficit reduction – not the ‘emergency Budget’ in late June but the next Spending Review. Big cuts to cherished programmes will test the instincts and loyalties of the LibDems – especially when the coalition becomes unpopular and Labour is the only beneficiary. And that is leaving aside the promised referendum on the Alternative Vote.
There are, as Cameron has said, many challenges ahead. But, for the moment, a bold political and constitutional experiment has been launched.
Peter Riddell is chief political commentator of The Times and a senior fellow of the Institute for Government
