18 May 2007
Premier-in-waiting Gordon Brown has promised a big shift in 'the way we govern'. So what will this mean in practice for the public sector? James Blitz predicts less spin and more focus on domestic issues
Gordon Brown is on course to enter Number 10. All the obstacles to his succession have now disappeared. Tony Blair has announced the date for his departure. Cabinet ministers who might have challenged Brown for the labour leadership have dropped out of the race.
Brown's campaign to succeed Blair is therefore turning into a lap of honour. It will end at around 3
o'clock on the afternoon of Wednesday, June 27 – a few hours after Blair has fielded his last prime minister's questions in the Commons. At that moment, the 56-year-old Scot will stand on the steps of Number 10, the first new prime minister of the twenty-first century. A new era in British politics will begin.
But then what? How will Prime Minister Brown govern? Who will be in his Cabinet? How will he change New Labour policy after Blair? While his succession is certain, these are far harder questions to answer.
The first week of Brown's leadership campaign has not been helpful in giving us many insights into policy – and the likelihood is that we will not know much more until well into the autumn.
Inside the Brown camp, there is little heavy briefing on any big policy changes ahead. In part, this reticence is a deliberate tactic.
'We don't want to put out huge amounts of information now,' says one ally. 'Gordon has not yet got to Number 10 and he has not yet formed his Cabinet. It would look presumptuous – authoritarian – if he spelt out everything he will do until the new Cabinet is around the table. After all, he needs to start cultivating a collegiate image.'
Yet, even when he is in government, we should not expect a hugely busy July, brimful of initiatives. Brown is famed for having pulled off one of the biggest policy shocks in years just after he became chancellor in 1997 – giving independence to the Bank of England.
But his advisers insist nothing similar is about to happen now. There was much talk from the Brownites earlier this year about how the first 100 days in power would bring a number of big changes and reforms. But this kind of rhetoric has since been toned down.
'You will be hearing a lot about new themes and approaches, especially about how he wants to govern,' says a close confidant. 'That, rather than a whole lot of new announcements, is what the first 100 days will be about.'
The first big question, of course, on the day after Brown walks into Number 10, will be how he forms his Cabinet. It will be the first sign of what he wants to do and how he wants to go about things.
It looks increasingly likely that Alistair Darling, one of Brown's closest allies and the man with the best grasp of the economic brief in Cabinet, will be the new chancellor.
Jack Straw, a close Brown ally, will also be in the top line-up. He could return to the post of home secretary or foreign secretary – or possibly be deputy prime minister with another Cabinet portfolio. It has been mooted that, if Straw goes to the Foreign Office, David Miliband, the environment secretary, might become home secretary.
Hilary Benn, the international development secretary, is also seen as a possible contender for foreign secretary.
We should beware of regarding any of these as firm predictions. But we also know that Brown wants to balance heavyweights in the top jobs with fresh generational change inside the rest of the Cabinet.
Ed Balls, Brown's close adviser, is certain to enter the Cabinet, possibly as chief secretary to the Treasury. James Purnell, the pensions minister and a leading Blairite, is mooted as culture secretary.
Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband – three up-and-coming figures in the junior ministerial ranks – all look set for Cabinet posts.
Two other points should also be made about this reshuffle. First, what happens at the Department of Health will be a central focus for the new prime minister. He wants to clear up a lot of the confusion caused by the NHS revolution, confusion that has given the Conservatives a significant poll lead on this issue. Patricia Hewitt is therefore likely to be moved from her post as health secretary – even if it is unclear who Brown has in mind as her replacement.
Secondly, the Cabinet overhaul may be accompanied by further departmental reorganisation along the lines seen at the Home Office.
Brown will not split the Treasury into an economics ministry and a European style ministry of finance – as many have speculated. If anything, he is ensuring that the Treasury remains a strong policy redoubt.
By contrast, there is a possibility that he might make changes elsewhere, possibly moving energy policy from the Department of Trade and Industry to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to give the environment secretary a much tighter focus on the issues on climate change.
No final decision has yet been taken on this. But if it does happen, it will have knock-on effects on how the DTI is reconfigured, possibly leading to the creation of a ministry of science and technology.
What then of policy? What changes can we expect? As noted earlier, Brown has said little on the subject so far, but here are some informed thoughts.
First, Brown has put a powerful focus on 'changing the way we govern', shifting away from the spin and glitz of the Blair years. At the launch of his premiership bid in London on May 11, he talked about leading a 'new' and more 'humble' government that would 'listen and learn'.
This is probably the clearest part of his prospectus so far. 'Gordon feels that if the government does not look like it has changed in this direction, nobody will listen to it at all,' says an ally.
We should be careful of allowing the hype over big constitutional changes to get the better of us. Brown, for example, has talked about establishing a written constitution – but if this idea develops, it will do so very slowly, only becoming a reality if Labour wins the next election.
Brown appears to be thinking of having something like a Bill of citizens' rights and responsibilities, which spells out some obligations on government but also entrenches the obligations of the citizen. More
concretely, however, we can say there will be a string of constitutional changes of note. Brown, for example will look at ensuring that leading public sector officials are approved by relevant Commons select committees before they take up their posts.
Hence, the chair of the BBC trust or the heads of the energy regulators might be approved in new 'US senate-style' hearings.
Brown will look at giving Parliament greater oversight over whether there have been breaches of the ministerial code of conduct. Until now, the prime minister has been the ultimate arbiter of whether ministers have breached the code. But this has left MPs feeling uneasy at times – such as over Blair's handling of the Blunkett affair – and could be ripe for change.
The Brown camp also talks about bringing outside experts into government to ensure better policy development. This will not mean that business figures will start to become ministers. But Brown will import to Number 10 the model he used as chancellor of engaging outside experts to help forge policy.
More generally, there will be a far greater role for Parliament in decision making. Brown will move away, for example, from Blair's habit of holding a monthly press conference, arguing that it is far more important to make himself available to the Commons.
Changing 'the way we govern' is only part of the policy prospectus, however. The second big question is whether Brown will change management of public services.
Brown clearly believes his central goal when he gets to Number 10 must be to get a grip on confusion in the health service and the payment-by-results revolution. Some NHS trusts have been plagued by huge deficits that have caused them to scale down or even close services.
How he tackles this problem remains to be seen. Will he intervene to ensure affected NHS trusts are propped up by Treasury cash? Critics might say this would slow down the revolution, preventing payment by results from taking full effect.
Yet, in a recent BBC television interview, Brown made it clear you cannot expose the NHS fully to market forces.
'Health care is quite different from any other activity in the economy,' he said. 'And I think you've got to organise it in such a way that you recognise that, particularly in Britain where our principle is health according to need.'
There is a string of other key issues that will define this premiership. On the environment, Brown will continue to take the view that climate change cannot be tackled by modifying behaviour through raising taxes on citizens. His focus will continue to be on reducing carbon emissions by means of multilateral action with other European Union states, setting binding ceilings for carbon production.
Brown has come up with the idea in his campaign of building five new eco towns across Britain. This is seen by his opponents as something of a gimmicky
re-announcement. Nevertheless, there is certain to be a strong focus over the next few months on the need to provide more affordable housing, especially for first-time buyers.
On education, meanwhile, Brown has signalled a slight shift of approach. He told the CBI on May 15 that he wanted to put a far stronger focus on boosting literacy and numeracy for people from poorer backgrounds than has happened in recent years. This is a goal that some Brown supporters feel has been somewhat neglected by the Blair government.
On foreign policy, too, there will be a significant change in tone. Brown will move away from Blair's excessively close relationship with the US, moving the UK towards what Brown calls the 'new multilateralism'.
This means using international bodies and forging international agreements to solve diplomatic crises. There will also be a huge emphasis on using concerted economic action to resolve crises such as the Middle East conflict.
All told, Brown will have a far greater domestic policy focus than Blair. For Brown, the central political goal is not to get to Number 10 next month but to win the subsequent general election expected in 2009 or 2010. Brown does not want to go down in history as the man who is remembered for succeeding Blair – the victor of three successive election victories – only to go on to lose. Winning the next election will be everything to him, by ensuring he maintains a powerful focus on getting domestic policy right.
But whether he can turn Labour's fortunes round remains to be seen. Over the next few years, Brown will almost certainly end up in the throes of a major domestic or international crisis. How he deals with this will probably define how he is subsequently judged.
As chancellor, most of his decisions have been made in big set-piece events, such as the Budget or the Spending Review. At Number 10, he will find that he must take dozens of decisions every single day. He will have to adapt.
How he responds to the relentless demands of the premiership cannot yet be imagined.
James Blitz is political editor of the Financial Times
PFmay2007
